Google / Gemini Tracking
Search · AI · Monetisation
Module 01
Executive Summary
Top-level directional signals across all monitored baskets
Updated: —
TOTAL AI USAGE PROXY
Cloudflare + GT
+18.2%
q/q
Q/Q growth+18.2%
Y/Y growth+147%
Best available top-line usage proxy; Cloudflare bot traffic + Google Trends composite
GEMINI SHARE TREND
GT Index
#2 → #2
-2.1 pts
Q/Q share-2.1 pts
Rank#2 (stable)
Relative share vs ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity; GT index normalized to 100
SEARCH VOLUME / DEMAND
KW Planner
-3.4%
q/q
Q/Q change-3.4%
Y/Y change+8.1%
Commercial keyword basket volume; comparable to Google-reported query growth
SEARCH PRICING
KW Planner
+5.7%
q/q
Q/Q change+5.7%
Y/Y change+12.3%
Blended CPC proxy from high-value keyword bid ranges (Finance, Legal, Travel)
LIVE SIGNAL — AI BOT TRAFFIC
AI Bots HTTP Traffic — 12-Week Time Series
Real-world AI crawler & bot traffic share by user-agent · Source: Cloudflare Radar
Live data
Cloudflare Radar
LIVE SIGNAL — AI BOT INTENT
AI Bot Crawl Purposes — 12-Week Time Series
Why AI bots are crawling: training, search-indexing, content scraping & other purposes · Source: Cloudflare Radar
Live data
Cloudflare Radar
What changed this month
Gemini search interest (Google Trends) continuing month-on-month decline; ChatGPT widening lead; Perplexity accelerating fastest among all monitored peers
Commercial keyword basket proxy: Finance & Travel cluster stable-to-firm; Tech/SaaS cluster showing multi-month softening signal (Google Trends + Keyword Planner volume indicators)
Keyword Planner bid ranges firming in Finance & Travel clusters; Tech/SaaS bid ranges declining — structural demand rotation signal
AI Overview appearing in 34 of 120 monitored keywords (28%) this month vs 24 of 120 (20%) last month — 8 pp rise in basket coverage
Vertex AI list pricing unchanged MoM; Bedrock Claude pricing reduced; GCP public interest index stable while Bedrock trends modestly upward
Module 02
Gemini Public Signal Monitor
Public search-interest and app-visibility signals — directional indices only
Updated: —
CATCH-UP TRACKER
Gemini vs Peers — Catch-Up Tracker
Is Gemini catching up to the others?
Cloudflare + GT
Public data
| Platform | Current Proxy Level | q/q Change | y/y Change | Rank / Share Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | 86 (GT Index) | +4.8% | +19.4% | #1 (unchanged) | Google Trends |
| Gemini | 46 (GT Index) | -2.1% | -11.5% | #2 → #2 | Google Trends |
| Perplexity | 31 (GT Index) | +7.6% | +210% | #3 (accelerating) | Google Trends |
| Claude | 22 (GT Index) | +4.8% | +83% | #4 (stable) | Google Trends |
Data note: GT Index is 0–100 relative scale (not absolute users). Cloudflare traffic data supplements this via live embed below. Phase 2: paid app-intelligence vendor for absolute DAU/MAU.
⚠️ Placeholder data: Chart shows synthetic directional curves for illustration. Live data integration pending (Cloudflare API + GT API).
Module 03
Search Volume / Demand Tracker
Historical search volume proxy — filed click/volume history vs external proxies · Search revenue = volume × price
Updated: —
MODULE A — HISTORICAL VOLUME PROXY
Historical Search Volume Proxy
Filed click/volume history vs external proxies — Google Ads Search Trends / Insights · Baseline level, q/q %, y/y %
Filed Data
External Proxy
Baseline Level (Latest Q)
~8.5B queries/day
Derived from filed click data
q/q Change
-3.4%
Filed volume proxy (latest Q)
y/y Change
+8.1%
Filed volume proxy (latest Q)
MODULE B — VOLUME BUILD BRIDGE
Volume Build Bridge
Filed click/volume history vs external proxy · Rolling correlation · Search revenue = volume × price
Bridge
Correlation
| Period | Filed Volume (Index) | External Proxy (Index) | Δ (pp) | Rolling Correlation (12Q) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 100.0 | 102.3 | +2.3 | 0.87 | Proxy slightly ahead |
| 2024 Q3 | 103.5 | 105.1 | +1.6 | 0.89 | Strong correlation |
| 2024 Q2 | 107.2 | 106.8 | -0.4 | 0.91 | Proxy slightly behind |
| 2024 Q1 | 104.8 | 103.9 | -0.9 | 0.88 | Good tracking |
| 2023 Q4 | 108.1 | 107.5 | -0.6 | 0.86 | Within tracking range |
Bridge Note:
Rolling 12Q correlation: 0.87–0.91 indicates strong tracking between filed volume and external proxy. External proxy is suitable for forward-looking volume estimates when combined with pricing signals. Search revenue = volume × price. Volume tracker (this module) + Pricing tracker (Module 04) = revenue build.
Module 04
Search Pricing / Ad Demand
Blended top-of-page CPC proxy · basket volume trend · q/q & y/y · Google Ads Keyword Planner
Updated: —
MODULE C — SEARCH PRICING / AD DEMAND
Search Pricing / Ad Demand
Blended bid/CPC proxy by basket · volume trend · q/q & y/y · source: Google Ads Keyword Planner
KW Planner
Google Ads
| Basket | Geography | Blended Bid / CPC Proxy | Price q/q | Price y/y | Avg Monthly Volume | Volume q/q | Volume y/y | Source |
|---|
Quarterly Price Change by Vertical — Bid/CPC % Δ
Q/q price Δ:
+5%+
+2–5%
±2%
−2–5%
−5%+
| Basket | Avg Monthly Searches | Volume q/q | Volume y/y | Competition | Intent | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | High (100K–1M) | +2.1% | +8.4% | High | commercial | KW Planner |
| Travel & Hospitality | High (100K–1M) | +3.8% | +14.2% | Med–High | transactional | KW Planner |
| Health & Pharma | Med–High (10K–100K) | −0.4% | +3.1% | High | commercial | KW Planner |
| E-Commerce / Retail | High (100K–1M) | −1.9% | −3.2% | Medium | transactional | KW Planner |
| Tech / SaaS | High (100K–1M) | −3.4% | −8.7% | High | commercial | KW Planner + Search Trends |
| Legal Services | Low–Med (1K–10K) | −0.8% | +1.4% | Very High | commercial | KW Planner |
| Auto / Insurance | High (100K–1M) | +1.6% | +6.8% | High | transactional | KW Planner |
CTR / Monetisation — Requires Live Benchmark Campaigns
Not active in Phase 1. CTR and monetisation metrics require live benchmark campaign data, which is not available through public Keyword Planner alone. Activating this tab with fake numbers would mislead the model.
Blended CTR by vertical — requires live benchmark campaign or paid Search Console access
Revenue-per-click (RPC) — not publicly observable; requires enterprise reporting
AI Overview deflection impact on CTR — no public data source covers this in Phase 1
Zero-click rate trends — requires large-scale query log sampling
Phase 2: activate with live benchmark campaigns + approved paid data source
Not shown in Phase 1 to avoid unsupported precision.
Module 05
What It Means for Google Search Revenue
Volume × Price signals · directional only · source: KW Planner + AIO basket audit
Updated: —
Volume signal
q/q +2.1%
y/y +8.4%
KW Planner basket median · directional proxy
Price signal
q/q +3.2%
y/y +7.8%
Blended top-of-page bid proxy · Finance + Travel leading
Net implication
Positive if sustained
Revenue = Volume × Price · both signals directional positive this quarter
Watch item
AIO moving into high-value queries
AIO basket: 34 / 120 keywords (28%) — up from 20% last month · Finance & Legal at risk if crosses 30%
Both volume and price proxies are directional this quarter. The risk that offsets is AIO expansion into Finance and Legal — those verticals account for the highest bid density. Monitor AIO penetration rate monthly against these baskets before drawing a revenue conclusion.
Module 05B
AI Overview Watchlist
High-value verticals only · manual SERP audit · 120-keyword basket
Updated: —
Total tracked queries
120
keywords
Manually curated basket · monthly SERP spot-check · not population-level
High-value penetration
6 / 38
16%
↑ +5 pp MoM
High-value = bid >$8 top-of-page · Finance, Legal, Health, Auto clusters · was 11% last month
By vertical
| Vertical | KWs tracked | AIO present | Rate | MoM | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 18 | 3 | 17% | ↑ +2 pp | Watch |
| Legal Services | 14 | 2 | 14% | → Stable | Low |
| Travel & Hospitality | 14 | 4 | 29% | ↑ +3 pp | Watch |
| Health & Pharma | 16 | 7 | 44% | ↑ +5 pp | Watch |
| Auto / Insurance | 10 | 2 | 20% | → Stable | Low |
If AIO rises in Finance / Legal / Travel, monitor pricing pressure in those baskets.
LIVE SIGNAL — AI INFERENCE USAGE
Workers AI — Model Usage by HTTP Traffic · 12-Week Time Series
Which AI models are seeing the most real inference demand? Live request volume by model · Source: Cloudflare Radar
Live data
Cloudflare Radar
LIVE SIGNAL — AI INFERENCE BY TASK
Workers AI — Inference by Task Type · 12-Week Time Series
What AI is actually being asked to do: text generation, summarisation, classification, speech & more · Source: Cloudflare Radar
Live data
Cloudflare Radar
Phase 2
Traffic / Volume / Engagement
Requires broader observable coverage or paid traffic / engagement data sourcesTraffic
google.com monthly visit estimates, device split, geographic mix, source-of-traffic breakdown
Monthly visit volume (MoM / YoY) — requires approved web-intelligence panel
Device split (mobile / desktop / tablet) — same paid panel
Geographic traffic mix — same paid panel
Source-of-traffic breakdown (direct / organic / referral) — same paid panel
Volume
Search query volume, impressions, click volume by vertical and intent — not observable from public signals
Exact keyword search volume — Keyword Planner provides tiers only (High/Med/Low), not counts
Impression volume by vertical — requires Search Console or paid panel
Click volume estimates — requires paid data source, significant uncertainty range
KW Planner volume tiers available now in Module 04 (directional only)
Engagement
App DAU/MAU, session depth, retention, YouTube engagement — all require paid vendor coverage
Gemini app DAU/MAU — requires Sensor Tower / data.ai subscription
Session depth and retention — not publicly observable
YouTube watch time, Shorts CPM, CTV engagement — requires paid video-intelligence vendor
ChatGPT / Perplexity app engagement head-to-head — same vendor requirement
Public search-interest proxy available now in Module 02 (GT index, directional only)
Module 08
AI Model Benchmarks
AI model performance benchmarks: image generation quality and agentic capabilities · Source: Artificial Analysis
Live data from artificialanalysis.ai
LIVE BENCHMARK — TEXT-TO-IMAGE QUALITY
Text-to-Image Model Leaderboard
Human preference rankings for text-to-image AI models · Tracks Imagen, DALL-E, Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and other leading models
Live data
Artificial Analysis
LIVE BENCHMARK — AGENTIC CAPABILITY
AI Agentic Index — Model Performance Across Agentic Tasks
Measures AI models' ability to perform autonomous, multi-step reasoning and task execution · Source: Artificial Analysis
Live data
Artificial Analysis
System
Active Alerts
Signal thresholds crossed since last review cycle
HIGH
—
Gemini Search Interest — Sustained Decline
Google Trends relative interest for "Gemini AI" has shown consecutive monthly declines against ChatGPT baseline. Perplexity is the only peer with accelerating interest. Directional signal only — not absolute engagement data.
WATCH
—
AI Overview Basket Rate — Rising
AI Overview appearing in 28% (34/120 keywords) of our monitored basket, up from 20% (24/120) last month. 8 percentage-point rise in one month. If Finance/Legal verticals breach 30%, monetisation offset thesis is directly challenged.
INFO
—
Finance Keyword Bid Ranges — Firming
Google Keyword Planner top-of-page bid ranges in Financial Services and Travel clusters showing upward direction. Consistent with recovering auction density in high-yield verticals. Supportive of partial revenue-per-query offset thesis.
WATCH
—
AWS Bedrock Claude — List Price Reduction
Bedrock Claude 3.7 Sonnet and 3.5 Haiku list prices reduced vs prior published prices. Vertex AI list pricing unchanged. Bedrock search interest trending modestly upward on Google Trends — competitive pressure signal.
System
Methodology & Caveats
Data sources, confidence levels, phase definitions, limitations
Phase 1 design principle: This dashboard displays only real, publicly available data signals. No synthetic numbers, visit estimates, faux-precise engagement scores, or composite indices from unapproved data vendors are shown. Where a metric cannot be derived from public data, it is explicitly marked as Phase 2 or unavailable. All directional signals carry explicit uncertainty labelling.
| Metric Name | Definition | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Trends Index | Relative search interest on 0–100 scale. Not session count, visit volume, or engagement score | Google Trends (public) | Directional |
| KW Planner Bid Range | Top-of-page bid low/high from Google Keyword Planner. Indicative range — not auction-cleared CPC | Google Ads KW Planner | Indicative ±range |
| AI Overview Basket Rate | % of manually checked keywords from a 120-keyword basket showing AI Overview in SERP. Sample-based spot check | Manual SERP audit | Sample ±error |
| Published Model Pricing | Public list prices from vendor pricing pages. Not enterprise/negotiated rates or free-tier | Vendor public pages | Published |
| Traffic Volume (Phase 2) | Not available in Phase 1. Requires approved paid web-intelligence subscription | Phase 2 only | Unavailable |
| Module | Data Type | Source | Confidence | Frequency | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini vs Peers | Search interest index (0–100 relative) | Google Trends | Directional | Weekly/Monthly | Phase 1 live |
| Search Demand Proxy | Commercial keyword cluster interest + volume tiers | Google Trends + KW Planner | Directional | Monthly | Phase 1 live |
| KW Planner Monitor | Bid ranges, competition, volume tiers | Google Ads KW Planner | Indicative | Monthly | Phase 1 live |
| AI Overview Basket | % of 120 KW basket showing AI Overview | Manual SERP audit | Sample-based | Monthly | Phase 1 live |
| Model Pricing | Published public list prices | Vendor pricing pages | Published | As-changed | Verified |
| Cloud Interest | GT index for Vertex AI, Bedrock, Azure OAI | Google Trends | Directional | Weekly | Phase 1 live |
| Traffic (google.com) | Visit volume, device/geo/source splits | Paid panel required | N/A | Monthly | Phase 2 |
| Gemini App Engagement | DAU/MAU, downloads, session depth | Paid vendor required | N/A | Monthly | Phase 2 |
| YouTube Health | Watch-time, CPM, Shorts engagement | Paid vendor required | N/A | Monthly | Phase 2 |
- No visit volume: This dashboard does not report google.com monthly visit counts, device splits, geographic traffic composition, or source-of-traffic breakdown. Those metrics require Phase 2 paid panel approval.
- Google Trends limitations: Trends data is relative (0–100 scale, normalised to the highest-search term in the period). It reflects interest, not absolute session count or revenue. Seasonal normalisation can distort comparisons across different time windows.
- Keyword Planner bid ranges: These are indicative ranges from the Google Ads planning tool, not auction-clearing CPCs. Actual CPCs depend on Quality Score, auction density, bid strategy, and ad relevance — none of which are captured here.
- AI Overview basket: Coverage is checked against a manually curated 120-keyword basket with mixed query intent (skewed informational). Results are a spot-sample, not a representative survey of all Google queries. Basket composition is disclosed in the methodology appendix.
- Published model pricing: List prices are manually sourced from public vendor pages. Enterprise discounts, free-tier allowances, and volume committed-use pricing are not reflected. Prices may lag actual published changes by 1–2 weeks.
- No composite scores: No blended engagement scores, composite indices, or normalised multi-vendor metrics are used. All metrics are single-source or clearly labelled as manual synthesis.
- Internal use only: All synthesis and interpretation is for internal research purposes. No material non-public information has been used or implied.
- google.com traffic estimates (MoM & YoY): Via approved paid web-intelligence subscription. Will include device split, geographic composition, and source-of-traffic breakdown with explicit ±error bounds.
- Gemini app engagement panels: Absolute DAU/MAU, download trends, session depth via paid app-intelligence vendor (Sensor Tower / data.ai). Will not display without vendor approval.
- YouTube health proxies: Watch-time trend, Shorts CPM signal, CTV engagement — via paid video-intelligence subscription.
- Richer Gemini vs ChatGPT competitive panels: Web traffic comparison, app engagement head-to-head, absolute retention signals.
- Expanded AI Overview basket: 200-keyword basket with explicit high-yield vertical weighting (Finance 40%, Legal 20%, Travel 20%, Health 20%).
Current basket: 120 keywords, manually curated, monthly spot-check. Composition breakdown:
- Informational queries: ~45% (e.g., "how does X work", "what is Y")
- Commercial queries: ~30% (e.g., "best X for Y", "X vs Y comparison")
- Transactional queries: ~15% (e.g., "buy X", "X price")
- Navigational queries: ~10% (branded terms)
Basket bias note: Current basket is skewed informational — AI Overview naturally over-indexes on informational queries. Phase 2 basket will rebalance toward commercial/transactional to better reflect monetisation-relevant queries. This month's 28% coverage figure should be interpreted in this context.
APPENDIX — PUBLISHED AI MODEL PRICING
Published AI Model Pricing Reference
Official list prices · Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta · not enterprise/negotiated rates
Published list
Vendor public pages
| Provider | Model | Input / 1M tokens | Output / 1M tokens | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google — Vertex AI / Gemini API | |||||
| Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship | $1.25 | $10.00 | 1M tokens | Vertex Pricing | |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | $0.15 | $0.60 | 1M tokens | Vertex Pricing | |
| Gemini 2.0 Flash | $0.10 | $0.40 | 1M tokens | Vertex Pricing | |
| Gemini 1.5 Flash | $0.075 | $0.30 | 1M tokens | Vertex Pricing | |
| OpenAI — API | |||||
| OpenAI | GPT-4.1 Latest | $2.00 | $8.00 | 1M tokens | OpenAI Pricing |
| OpenAI | GPT-4.1 mini | $0.40 | $1.60 | 1M tokens | OpenAI Pricing |
| OpenAI | GPT-4o | $2.50 | $10.00 | 128K tokens | OpenAI Pricing |
| OpenAI | o3 Reasoning | $10.00 | $40.00 | 200K tokens | OpenAI Pricing |
| OpenAI | o4-mini | $1.10 | $4.40 | 200K tokens | OpenAI Pricing |
| Anthropic — Claude API / AWS Bedrock | |||||
| Anthropic | Claude 3.7 Sonnet Latest | $3.00 | $15.00 | 200K tokens | Anthropic / Bedrock |
| Anthropic | Claude 3.5 Haiku ↓ Reduced | $0.80 | $4.00 | 200K tokens | Anthropic / Bedrock |
| Anthropic | Claude 3 Opus | $15.00 | $75.00 | 200K tokens | Anthropic / Bedrock |
| Meta — Llama (via hosted inference providers) | |||||
| Meta / hosted | Llama 4 Scout Latest | $0.17 | $0.17 | 10M tokens | Together / Groq list |
| Meta / hosted | Llama 4 Maverick | $0.27 | $0.85 | 1M tokens | Together / Groq list |
| Meta / hosted | Llama 3.3 70B | $0.59 | $0.79 | 128K tokens | Together / Groq list |
| Pending Public Pricing Announcement | |||||
| OpenAI | GPT-5 Not listed | TBA | TBA | TBA | No public page |
| Gemini 3.0 / Ultra Not listed | TBA | TBA | TBA | No public page | |